There has been an acceleration in the evolution of the epidemic, which has now entered an acute phase, with a progressive increase in the number of cases, evidence of critical issues within the territorial services and increases in the occupancy rate of beds in intensive care and medical areas, with a risk, in some Regions/PAs, to reach critical values in the coming month.

A rapid analysis of the sub-regional risk is therefore necessary for the timely increase of containment and mitigation measures in the most affected areas, on the basis of the guidelines provided in the document "Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period", issued by the Ministry of Health through the circular letter of 12/10/2020, Prot. 32732. The population is called upon to conscientiously and accurately comply with all the precautionary rules provided for (in particular, physical distancing and the correct and appropriate use of face masks) and to avoid as much as possible any situation that may promote transmission, such as spontaneous and planned assemblies, in order to avoid further worsening, which could require further widespread restrictions on the national territory.

Key points:

  • An analysis of the data for the period October 5-11, 2020 is provided below. Due to the time between exposure to the pathogen and the development of symptoms, and between these and the diagnosis and subsequent notification, many of the cases reported this week are likely to have become infected at the end of September. Some of the cases identified by screening, however, may have contracted the infection in earlier periods.
  • The virus is now circulating throughout the country. This week a strong increase in cases was observed, which brings the cumulative incidence (ISS flow data) in the last 14 days to 75 per 100 000 inhabitants (period 28/9 - 11/10) (vs. 44.37 per 100 000 inhabitants in the period 21/9 - 4/10). In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases almost doubled (15,189 symptomatic cases in the period 28/9 - 11/10 vs 8,198 symptomatic cases in the period 21/9 - 4/10).
  • All Regions/PPAA, except one, have reported an increase in the number of diagnosed cases, compared to the previous week (ISS flow). The percentage of new cases that were detected through contact tracing activities continued to drop (28.8% of new cases vs. 31.8% the previous week). The percentage of new cases detected through screening activities also decreased (31.1% vs. 33.2%) The percentage of cases detected through the appearance of symptoms increased (31.6% vs. 29.1% last week). In 8.5% of cases, no diagnostic findings were reported.
  • In the period  September 24-  October 07, 2020, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is 1.17 (95%CI: 1.03 - 1.50).
  • A total of 4,913 active outbreaks were reported, of which 1,749 new (the adopted definition of outbreak foresees the identification of 2 or more positive cases linked to each other), both increasing for the eleventh consecutive week (in the previous week of monitoring, 3,805 active outbreaks were reported, of which 1,181 new). Outbreaks were reported in almost all provinces (102/107). Most of these outbreaks continue to occur at home (80.3%). The percentage of outbreaks detected in recreational activities remained stable (4.2% vs. 4.1% in the previous week).
  • This week there is an increase in the number of outbreaks where transmission could have taken place in the school environment, but intra-school transmission remains a limited transmission dynamic overall: 3.8% of all new outbreaks where transmission has been reported. However, extra-school activities can act as a trigger for transmission chains where prevention measures are not respected.
  • There is a sharp increase in the number of new cases outside the known transmission chains. This week the Regions/PAA reported 9,291 cases, where no epidemiological link was found (vs. 4,041 the previous week), which includes 33% of all cases reported during the week.
  • Also this week, on a national level, an important increase in the number of hospitalized people was observed (4,519 vs 3,287 in the medical area, 420 vs 303 in intensive care on 11/10 and 4/10 days, respectively) and, consequently, the employment rates of hospitalizations in the medical area and in intensive care increased, with some Regions/PPAA rising above 10% in both areas.

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Data di pubblicazione: 19 ottobre 2020, ultimo aggiornamento 20 novembre 2020